Don’t place any big bets just yet, but it seems increasingly likely that there never was a Kwangmyongsong-2.

If you haven’t been paying attention, check out Geoff Forden’s analysis. Looks kinda like an IRBM test, and a successful one, at that.

Update: It might be more accurate to say “a partly successful ICBM test.” It certainly looks like a three-stage rocket, no?

At least some people in South Korea think so. But just try to prove it…

So why might North Korea undertake such a ruse? Well, under UNSCR 1718, North Korea cannot legally test a ballistic missile. But under the Outer Space Treaty, they can launch a satellite:

Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on a basis of equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies.

Hey, did anyone notice that North Korea acceded to the Outer Space Treaty and the Registration Convention on March 10, 2009?

How about that?

Update: More from Forden.